Often Partisan

Hypotheticals

With Carson’s trial still ongoing (and the cross-examination showing no signs of coming to a rapid conclusion) there have been a lot of questions about what happens next – ie will a verdict bring a rapid conclusion to the sale process and/or could Carson be forced out as major shareholder.

As ever, I’m working on information I have researched but please bear in mind I’m not a lawyer or an accountant and I am working on hypothetical situations – in other words please treat this with the scepticism it deserves.

When is there likely to be a verdict?

The cross-examination is still taking place in the trial and has shown no signs of being completed. Once it is completed, we are looking at six weeks for final submissions to be made with a day or two of hearings for closing arguments before the judge retires to consider a verdict – a process which could take a month or so. With Christmas and the Lunar New Year holidays to take into account I think a feasible date for a verdict at this moment would be mid-January or early February; however the longer the cross-examination takes the further this will be pushed back.

There is no time limit on how long the cross-examination can take; the prosecution will have a plan of questions they have to ask but it depends on the answers Carson gives – it could be (and often has been) that clarification has had to be sought and that one answer has bought about a further dozen questions.

What happens if Carson is found guilty?

If Carson is found guilty of the charges of money laundering, various rules and regulations come into play. Firstly, Carson cannot be a director of Birmingham City Football Club nor act as a shadow director as he will automatically fail the owners and directors test. Secondly, as per this announcement to the Hong Kong stock exchange Carson will have to step down as executive director and chairman of the board of Birmingham International Holdings. Should the club not be sold at this point this mean that there will have to be a new President of the club appointed and a new chairman of the board of BIH. It is my suspicion (and I will repeat I’m basing this only on what I feel rather than any sound facts) that his replacement would likely to be Victor Ma Shui Cheong, who is an executive director of BIH and also is Carson’s brother-in-law.

Can his shares be taken off him?

The issue of Carson being forced to give up his shares is a much thornier one. Under the owners and directors test rules, an owners is considered to be someone who owns 30% or more of a football club – something that Carson does not have (he owns around 26%). The football league do have a caveat that a person can be considered to be an owner with a smaller shareholding if they are considered to act as if they did have a 30% plus shareholding – something which I believe is provable bearing in mind how Carson has run things in the past few years. That would need to be something that stood up in court and would require some legal teeth from the Football League and is something which I will admit I have profound scepticism in happening.

However, on conviction the restraint order against Carson’s assets can be converted into a confiscation order, which would see his shares in BIH forcibly taken from him. It’s worth pointing out that confiscation orders take a while to enforce and it could feasibly be years before that happened. On the plus side, this wouldn’t actually affect the sale of the club, as any proceeds from the sale would go into an escrow account pending confiscation or release of the restraint order – the HK judiciary wouldn’t stop the process happening.

In short – whilst a verdict will help bring some closure to this particular chapter in Blues history it could be the start of another legal saga. It’s my belief that should Carson be in charge still and be convicted then pressure will need to be brought to bear on the Football League to enforce their own rules – something I will be glad to assist in.

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46 Responses to “Hypotheticals”

  • Art Watson says:

    Is there any good news?

  • Gary says:

    This has just become totally ridiculous I think we fans just have to face it this club won’t be sold until it’s on it’s knees if at all.

  • Roger says:

    The sales already happened only problem is that the shares are missing.

  • Oldbluenose says:

    I am totaly pessimistic about the way this case is dragging on, Mainly, of course because of the way it is affecting the finances of our club,!!.

    As your article implies, There does not seem to be any sign of a speedy conclusion to any sale, so where exactly does that leave us, ?.

  • chudlt says:

    So if CY is found guilty he could just be replaced by his brother in law.Unless his brother in law fails the Leagues criteria, the club would remain in the control of CY’s family.

    • StaffsBlue says:

      Looking at the ones that have passed the league’s criteria… I’d love to hear about the people who have actually failed… because the thought is scary.

  • Bluenosesol says:

    I believe CY’s best option is to line up a sale now and ensure that the final parachute payment is part of the deal! He could then offset any pecuniary considerations that the court imposes with proceeds from the sale. He would then avoid a lot of the litigation surrounding, ownership, control, shares etc.

  • The Francis Fake says:

    CY has always run the club is if in full control despite him having a minority shareholding, I believe this due to the fact that many other shareholders are either family members or cronies and that they somehow magically acquired the shares at the outset. This is because it was always CY’s objective to be a minority shareholder officially. If CY gets sent down then he loses the right to any cash arising from the sale of his shares following confiscation, however, I believe he still will have an interest in the sale as it looks as though he has some influence over the other shareholders. this is what worries me.

  • Ali Duncan says:

    If that scenario arises we as fans need to put as much pressure on the league as possible. I will be writing to them and demanding action.

  • Atahualpa is a BlueNose says:

    If we are speaking hypothetically, what chance that if CY is no longer king then he wishes to become king-maker?

    Would there not be the possibility that he might agree to sell his share of BIHL and thus Blues, for next to nothing to one of his homey’s if there is a chance that he can retain some control and influence?

    It does not seem feasible that CY has not factored in a worst case scenario for himself and made some sort of emergency provision.

  • des says:

    I never waste time looking into hypothetical situations. Personally if the club was run properly we wouldnt need any financial input from the owner anyway.

    KRO

  • glyn rees says:

    Good piece Dan. It seemed to me , that CY had a really bad day yesterday and day by day it looks more and more doubtful that he will get off. If thing look really bad surely he would sell then because all would be seized and he would get nothing but CY is a law to himself. Also it is looking as if we will be in the first division if no new investment comes in by the next window and that would devalue the club and make it less attractive. Finally I promise can we (Bcfc) or Bihl survive till February???????????? kro4ever

  • Peter bates says:

    Has anyone any idea where pp has disappeared to or wont he be a witness either seems cy has lost all friends mind you pp wants to be seen when his ego allows or did carson shoot him down in flames when he announced the club was not for sale

  • Steve Aerobic says:

    In all honesty we never know what is actually going on behind the boardroom doors of any group of owners. As fans we tend to be over optimistic whilst being over critical at the same time. This will all play out in due course and I have a sneeking suspicion that CY may still be calling the shots when its all over. Dont underestimate him, he is a clever man and I honestly believe that he has a love of football and our club and is desperately trying to hold on to it. If he is still at the helm when the case is over and he is in a position to fund the club then he will have my support.

  • Chris W says:

    Thanks again on another excellent article keeping the fans up to date with Carson-gate. your openness and foresight is probably an accurate assessment.
    It seems that we will not be rid of CY as he can, as I understand it, pass the control to his brother in law, he already has his son on the board of directors at St Ans, so I suppose he could just give him the controlling rights.

    The football league has to be the best option, but they seem to be taking a back seat throughout the whole drawn out fiasco, why can’t they begin any relevant action as CY has obviously proved he is in no way a fit or proper person to run any form of business, let alone a football club, after all, it was them along with the FA who agreed he was fit and proper.
    Wasn’t CY a director before we got promoted to the Premiership before Gold and Sully sold him controlling rights?
    It will appear that CY is going to take this as far as he can and that will only bring more misery to the club and supporters.
    KRO+DNM

  • Chris W says:

    Thanks again on another excellent article keeping the fans up to date with Carson-gate. your openness and foresight is probably an accurate assessment.
    It seems that we will not be rid of CY as he can, as I understand it, pass the control to his brother in law, he already has his son on the board of directors at St Ans, so I suppose he could just give him the controlling rights.

    The football league has to be the best option, but they seem to be taking a back seat throughout the whole drawn out fiasco, why can’t they begin any relevant action as CY has obviously proved he is in no way a fit or proper person to run any form of business, let alone a football club, after all, it was them along with the FA who agreed he was fit and proper.
    Wasn’t CY a director before we got promoted to the Premiership before Gold and Sully sold him controlling rights?
    It will appear that CY is going to take this as far as he can and that will only bring more misery to the club and supporters.
    KRO+DNM

  • StaffsBlue says:

    I think when all is said and done… if the club was going to be sold, it would have happened by now. As I mentioned the other day, I believe Yeung does have a plan, but he sure as hell ain’t gonna tell us until, at least, the court case is wrapped up. I was always convinced that they wouldn’t be stupid enough to allow admin to happen… now I’m not so sure.

  • Bluenosegaz says:

    @sha1875: News: Birmingham International Holdings – Company Announcement http://t.co/QQmM4vnunw #bcfc

    • Ed says:

      That doesn’t sound like a take over is about to take place, it appears that CY and Co are planning to continue. Not good news.

      • DoctorD says:

        Let’s leave that announcement for Al to decipher and explain — it sounds as if relisting shares is imminent and Yeung might depart as chairman by the end of the year. But rebundling debt to raise funds doesn’t exactly put me at ease though.

    • almajir says:

      Blog post on it now.

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Would this even be a newspaper story if Cardiff were still in the Football League? I doubt it somehow.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2486667/Cardiff-City-fans-protest-owner-Vincent-Tan-wake-victory-rivals-Swansea-City.html

    • Chris W says:

      The difference being their owner attends matches, so at least he was aware of the protest, his answer to it was to turn off the lights.
      KRO+DNM

      • StaffsBlue says:

        So if it made no difference there… what chance do fans have here? No publicty and no board present to aim it at.

        • Chris W says:

          It only got publicity because they are both in the premiership, If everyone moved into the Tilton at the final whistle who would care, not the owners as they are 6,000 mile. Though I believe we should do something I am at a loss as to what would achieve any publicity or force CY and BIHL to sel the club or even invest.
          KRO+DNM

  • darren says:

    i dont think carson will sell, at the end of the day he has no incentive to sell at the moment as he cant touch the money anyway, and it may all be taken away for good soon. he is a gambler he is waiting for some divine intervention to save him.

    this will all end in tears i am afraid – roll on admin – stop funding this painful slow death – so we can begin to start again

    the football league will do sweet fanny adams they dont have the resource or the balls to take this on

  • ESONEULB says:

    So how can we as fans guarantee getting rid of him and BIHL??

    1. Starving the club of money and putting it into Administration?

    2. I would put … Buy it… but we need a willing seller to be able to buy something.. and CY does not want to sell. Unless he gets 4 times the clubs worth..

    3. ?? Can think of another that would make sense.

    So what can we do… option 1. is hard but it might be our only choice. Unless you want to another 10 years plus of pointless football…

    KRO

  • Mickey07 says:

    It’s YEUNG mayor not Carson…..it’s like he’s your mate….we are in the west now.

  • Chris says:

    Do not think this part of the statement sounds to good for us Fans…

    (The Company is in the late stages of discussions with third parties regarding possible fund raising
    exercises by way of debt and equity.)….
    Just shows these people will not release the club under any circumstances for the very foreseeable future…..Wonder what asset?..
    .Thank you the Trust happy in the knowledge my membership whent to good use…..

  • The Francis Fake says:

    Dan – do you think that the re-listing of BIH shares is necessary for a sale to go through?

    • DoctorD says:

      It’s not essential but BIHL have repeatedly said they’d only sell when relisted. At least that’s what I can remember. Unwittingly, we’re all half-baked experts in football finances.

  • ...sappy sad says:

    …………its a long way off since a report said that david Sullivan said blues fans should be proud to have carson yeung as owner….and that he as checked him out and he is satisfied with what he discovered ,……..the football brass also deemed him fit and proper……what I would like to know is ,if he is found guilty in hong kong ..would he be libel in a civil case to be sued by Birmingham city fans for being responsible for the lack of sponsorship at the club possibly,..in which was the cause possibly of bringing the clubs status down by actions not related to football…..

    • StaffsBlue says:

      Unfortunately sappy, it’s the same everywhere. You’ll only ever find out what they want you to find out. Business is all smoke and mirrors… especially out there it would seem.

  • Steve Aerobic says:

    The football league and David Sullivan only have limited checks that they can carry out, CY has a right to privacy the same as any individual. A businesses customers cannot sue them if the business fails due to its owners illegal actions. If it happened to a large supermarket it would be the same situation I believe.

  • dave mann says:

    if things dont pick up asap then its admin and league one to look forward to over the next 12
    months….happy days are here again.KRO.

    • StaffsBlue says:

      I’m beginning to wonder if admin and League 1 would be worth it just to get rid of this regime…. and I never thought I’d ever say that. I certainly wouldn’t have up until a week or two ago.

      • Staffordshire Blue Nose says:

        Admin has to be the last resort, local business the good folk that keep the club alive will get nothing but the players will get paid and Zigic will get his coin….. As will Mullins (again) PL, Ambrose and all the other fools Clark has brought to our football club. Just think the £150k that we paid for Caddis might have been enough to pay Clark off…. Saying that we might as well take the 10 point reduction now, would be wasted in Div 1…. What I want to know is how much we are paying for the loans that get nowhere near the team? Isn’t it time we vented our anger at LC? He is the one wasting money on players that wont be at this club next year. Everybody says how good it is that clark is promoting youth players, well tell me how many players brought through our youth system have started regular this season? The answer is none, Hancock and Riely have got the odd game and Gray started the last game. Sorry but Clark must go before PP and CY for me. KRO and GROC quickly

        • Chris W says:

          Not sure you are on the same planet or kept up with OP’s topics.
          Firstly, who would come to BCFC under the present circumstances, secondly it would probably cost nearer to £1 to £2 M to pay off LC.
          The lads that came through last season have been sold, i.e Jack Butland and Nathan Redmond, Mitch Hancox has been injured and Will Packwood, Ryan Higgins, Amari’i Bell, James Fry and Reece Hales are all out on loan.
          PP and CY are bleeding our club dry while LC is trying to keep the team going with little or no help from the owners.
          KRO+DNM

          • Staffordshire Blue Nose says:

            of course I have and I have said BE CAREFULL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, look what happened to Pompey, how many owners took them from the prem to div 2? And money well spent to get rid of Clark in my opinion. Hancox was fit and he played Robbo in front of him. To be fair to Clark he did blood Butland AFTER HE PLAYED/INVOLVED for England??? Redmond made his debut under the ginger one…. Arthur is now further back as will be Gray because he had a bad game.. And yes I was there on Saturday. Clark gave the team an excuse before the game started on Saturday “We worked it out we played 87 mins with 10 men so they will be tired”… I know how often I work overtime and it doesn’t effect me 4 days later and before you say anything yes I work in a physical job…. Footballers always say “all they want to do is play” and its better than training. so in my opinion LC has to go before the owners, hopefully both at the same time sooner rather than later. KRO and GROF quickly

  • Peter bates says:

    Only a madman would go into business with cy and administration will leave him with nothing so where do we go from here well as far as we know there is one offer on the table but cy says the club is not for sale so at the moment limbo

  • Tony says:

    Looks like he has bought more time, where do we go from here?.

  • Richard Granfield says:

    In your view Dan, what would the likely sentence be if CY is found guilty? Would it be a custodial sentence or/and a swingeing fine? If a fine is imposed, how would that effect the club?
    If the verdict is guilty, would the status quo remain if CY appeals?

  • StaffsBlue says:

    After what’s happened over the last 2 years…. cheap at half the price. ;)


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