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The Relegation Mixer
Blues managed to strengthen their chances of staying in the Championship this weekend without playing a game as the six teams below them failed to win. Indeed, had it not been for a stoppage time goal from Millwall’s Martyn Woolford in their 2-2 draw against Watford then the weekend would have been almost perfect.
Blues lie in eighteenth place, three points clear of 22nd placed Millwall, but with a game in hand and with a goal difference that is at least thirteen goals better than all the teams below them. The bottom two – Yeovil and Barnsley – lie seven points behind Blues although Barnsley play away to Charlton tonight at The Valley.
If the Tykes don’t manage to get a win there then they and Yeovil would need realistically three wins in four remaining games to overtake Blues – assuming Blues didn’t pick up a point – and I think that means in all but the most extreme circumstances we’re safe from those two. Assuming Charlton do win, they will overtake us tonight but there are three other teams in the mix; Doncaster, Millwall and Blackpool.
In the last six games, Blues have won two and lost four; Doncaster have an identical record but have conceded fewer goals and Millwall have two wins, two draws and two defeats whilst Blackpool only have one win, one draw and four defeats. In the last ten, Blues have three wins, one draw and six defeats; Doncaster have four wins, one draw and five defeats and Millwall have three wins, three draws and four defeats while Blackpool have only two wins, one draw and seven defeats.
No team has been tearing up trees formwise and at least one team in that pack has a worse record than Blues which leads me to believe that we may be closer to salvation than ever. Mathematically, 53 points will see a team safe from the drop at the moment (which is fewer than the total Peterborough went down with last season) which is ten points away from Blues; I think two wins should definitely seal our place in the Championship next season and even one might be enough on its own.
Blues are next up against Forest – who are rock bottom of the form table having not won a game in ten and I get the feeling that this could be a very good chance to pick up three of those much-needed points. Blues have set a bizarre Football League record in recording their last eight victories all away from home and I see no reason why it can’t be a ninth – when the crunch has been on this season Blues have delivered, particularly away from home – and I don’t think it’s coincidental that two previous crunch matches have pushed teams into trouble below us in Millwall and Doncaster.
I don’t like relying on statistics to show that we’re safe having been spectacularly wrong before but I’m feeling surer that we could well be in a good position now – so much so that I don’t think it matters what way the score goes tonight as any score is going to be beneficial to us in some way. Hopefully come Easter Monday and the Blackburn game we’re not all nervously chewing our fingernails banking on a home win to get us out of trouble.
Tags: Statistics
58 Responses to “The Relegation Mixer”
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Okay – usual rules. No swearing, no libellous or defamatory statements, no racism, sexism, no homophobia, no politics… in short, keep it constructive, polite, on-topic and add to the debate and it’ll all be just fine…
Hello.Why has disqus changed my name? Anyway gald your back mate!
I’m not sure. I’m getting used to it myself
Dan,firstly great work,keep it up,keep battling against ridiculous outside pressure.
Secondly my good friend is a Forest fan and he reckons they are ripe for the taking,season is petering out,in-between management regimes and confidence is low. I’m feeling we can at least snatch a draw,praying for that all important win.We need to go and attack them and put the on the back foot!!.KRO
Yeah good to av you back !!!!!!
2 to go down with Barnsley? Blackpool and Doncaster. Expect no more than 2 points each from the games they have left. That would mean Blues needing only 2 more points to be safe. Having said all that I just hope we can settle this matter as soon as possible. This season has the feel of 2011 about it. When ever we had the chance to seal our position something went wrong. Sending off against Wolves, No strikers available against Fulham and some dubious results on the last day.
Good to have you back by the way
Dan, I think one win will do it and if we can do it against forest it would take the pressure off the home games. If the team can then relax a bit you never know we may yet win at home again before the end of the season.
Coming up to my 60th Easter weekend as a Bluenose and for a fair number of those I have spent the time at the dog-end of the season wondering and worrying. Are we going down or, maybe, still in with a chance of going up? League tables, predictions, gut feelings, wild guesses – been there so many times. Surprise results all around us – remember the last time we went up we lost at home to Preston when a win would have taken us back to the Prem? Then won at Reading in the final game against all expectations? Typical Blues. The saga goes on. And on. And on. You young uns – you ain’t seen nuttin’ yet!!!!! PS Welcome back Dan. Mishcon de Reya? Sheesh!
great to be back !!
I think we will struggle even more next season without new owners and new money as I cant see any investment in to the club from bihl.
season ticket sales will be down. my workmate supports the other lot and is not getting a season tkt nxt season as he doesn’t want to pay to watch his team lose at home . sounds familiar !!
Welcome back Dan.If we can keep out of the bottom three then I think we will be ok.Any news on the sale?
In true Birmingham City style I fancy this is going to go the full course & on to Bolton for the last day.
After Forest we have 3 home games on the bounce, of which we need to win a couple. Normally that wouldn’t be to much of a stretch, but this has certainly not been a normal home campaign .
Lets hope the sun shines on everything we do , just for a change.
Congrats on your return! it is difficult to see where we will get the extra points right now. 3 Home games could continue the trend of 3 defeats against teams that are still trying for the playoffs then what do we have left ? Away at Forest who’ve been on a bad run might be the best option but we have a knack of helping clubs get over long runs of such results. Think we might be right in the mix last day sadly. And if we drop who’d pay £32m or even half that! So BIH would keep us and run us down further ! oh dear it’s not worth thinking about… Lets have a couple of home wins to safety !
What are you lot on about? We’ll end up in the bottom 3 before the last game and get beat at Bolton. Sorry guys, can’t see us staying up…..
Welcome back Dan.
Glad you are back. The site is certainly not the same without comments
With regards to relegation I can’t see where we’re going to get any points. We go a goal behind and the confidence will just disintegrate
OK boys this is the run in, lets get behind the team as much as we can, lots of vocals home and away.
I’m sure we’ll stay up this season, it’s next season that’s worrying me!
Duncan couldn’t agree more.With all of the experience players going in the summer and with no investment likley we are up “shit creek” without a boat never mind a paddle.
I welcome the return of comments being enabled on the site. having read the lawyers’ letters, it’s clear that the current regime at the club have badly misjudged how to relate to fans. the continued absence of PP at the ground, plus the quite sad begging post on the official Blues site in relation to the three games for £30 offer, show why the club is in the state it’s in. It’s difficult to see who is likely to buy the club at any point soon. Staying in the Championship would be a positive achievement considering the circumstances. KRO
Football results are so hard to predict, which is why I love and hate the game.
Glad to have comments back on.
Welcome back OP comments – sorely missed!
I suspect that we have got enough in the tank not to have to worry about getting a result at Bolton; however… As ever with Blues, it’s a roller-coaster ride.
BIHL are gambling with our value against our ability to stop up this season. Despite the line of thought which says that we go down and they’ll have to sell us, I cannot bring myself to wish for relegation; I think that it would be a disaster. In any event, it might make a sale even more unlikely, given that our value will plummet.
I fancy it will be Yeovil, Barnsley and Blackpool for the drop.
Nice to see the blog live again, Daniel. Whilst hoping to see us ain at least a point against Forest, We so often shoot ourselves in the foot when needing points.
Hi all – I actually think 4 points will do, 1 win and 1 draw which should be achievable from the last 5 – looking at Blackpool and Doncaster’s run in (horrendous!) I actually can see 1 point being enough
Welcome back Dan.
welcome back Dan…sorry you had to get lawyers after being sooo objective in your comments. we know where fans are at. as for predictions – I gave that up years ago.
Welcome back, Dan,as has been said, you have been missed.. Lets hope Posters respect your wishes and there is no more trouble.
Till we get used to this, can we have Posters Old name inserted at the start of their Posts, us Oldies cant be expected to remember everyone. :-)
Maybe you can change it on your profile page !?
It isn’t MY name I want highlighted, it’s everyone elses, I am not so senile that I cant remember my own. :-)
Chas I was sympathetic to your comment so mine wasn’t meant for you but those that haven’t adopted their op aliases.
Paul Carter – The Voice of Reason he says: Big game at the weekend but the question I put is IF we stay up is relegation inevitable next season given out funding? I think yes.
Also great support from our away crew to sell out Forest. Need to recreate that second half atmosphere from Donny
Good to be back in comment mode Dan, something strange going on as I couldn’t see this properly on my works computer but ok now on personal pc. Blues are not going to go down so lets worry about next season. No comment or direction of the new way forward as promised by Mr Pannu on behalf of the new chairman Mr Whatshisname, who has carried on where his predecessor left off! I fear dour season ticket sales, as who on earth is going to buy a pre paid package of 23 guaranteed turgid experiences next year. No investment plan and not a sniff of a sale. Everyone has lost the heart to protest. Keep right on to the end of the road as it may not be far away.
Hello everyone — I think the month without comments on this blog has purged my soul a bit. Blues to finish 19th.
I dont care what happens… the summer will be the making or breaking of this amazing football club #morethanjustabusiness
Good to see the comments back Dan.
FAO Bluenose Sol, you may think that way but I will be renewing whichever division we are in and will be as proud as I always am to do so. You say the club may be on it’s last legs well if everybody took the ‘don’t buy, don’t attend’ line then it would be. I’m sure there will be enough of us loyal ones to keep the club going so the rest may enjoy the next Wembley trip.
Hi Paul, I was an ever present in the 88-89 season when Chelsea won the title and were promoted with Man City. We were relegated with Shrewsbury and Walsall. Our average gate was just over the 6000 mark, so if we say that 50% of the 6000 have passed on or stopped going, then I am only in the company of 3000 hardened Bluenoses from that era. I am not informing that I will not be renewing for the first time in over 30 years, but making an ironic observation with respect to the general value proposition on offer for next season, possibly as you predict a season of staring relegation down the barrel. Sadly Paul, there are not the number of “pay what may” Bluenoses that you suggest and if the current board insist on staying put and continue to fail to gain investment and retain the 2 year communications blackout, then believe me, we will be in dire straights next season and no amount of naysaying and calls to action will change that! KRO!
So was I, and today was the anniversary of the day we first got relegated to Division 3. I remember all the police leaving Oakwell en masse and repeated questions over the tannoy for any doctors attending the game to come forward. It was the same season we lost 13-0 to the filth over 3 matches. You would have seen the famous Carl Richards two away goals for us at Bradford and Chelsea, the latter being a night game and the last away game before Barnsley. Yes memories are great, so is the future of the club. We will never die.
Our keeper at the 0-5 League Cup drubbing was no less than our own Tony Elliot from CCC’s Chelmsley Wood. His one and only appearance. Bloody shame as he was an excellent keeper but was thrown into a boiling cauldron as an 18 year old with no professional experience by a hapless manager.
I dont understand this “proud to buy a season ticket”,you are just making sure you have a seat next season to watch blues
With several other teams also being in the mix, they can’t all get points so I think 46 points with our goal difference will be enough. So 3 more to get if that’s the case – and I think we stand a reasonable chance of getting those on Saturday. So – optimistic for this season, but less so for next season unless we get some investment.
welcome back and well done for standing up against those who should know better, should have better things to do and definitely should be spending the clubs money on much more worthwhile projects
Biggest decision for me is whether to renew my ST’s or not. It’s not relegation that I fear it’s that there is no plan for the future of the club. I have pretty much decided that unless there is a change of ownership by next season then I will pick and chose games. I expect ST’s to go down to 6000 -7500 next season.
Welcome back Dan!
Welcome back after the hiatus Daniel. More of a reader now (posts and comments) due to time, yet thankful for your honesty in getting fed up of all things Blues lately. To me, I don’t mind if we go down, I don’t mind if we stay in the Championship ..the kitty’s pretty empty either way, and it’s nothing new to us. I think we’re really quite good at losing really, but some would disagree.
Bad times probably more evident by those who haven’t been to away games, not their fault, but the occasion when away, must be less pressured – as we just want it more, that’s all. At home, we just don’t want to lose – so the team falls apart. Big shame, but deep down I want us to stay up and win another game at home.
Very pleasing that comments are back. Please that you weren’t intimidated into not allowing freedom of speech. That said, pleasing not to see a comment from StaffsBlue yet. Let’s hope it stays that way. Can’t stand Tom Ross and the Mail regurgitated as original thought. Enjoyed Paul et alls comments about the 80s. A sell out at forest shows OUR club still has a hardcore. Won’t be there on Sat due to family commitments but pumped for Bolton. KRO!
Oh dear.. some things never change!
Sorry to disappoint you!
Charlton lose at home to Barnsley — probably a good result as it keeps us 18th. My only worry about playing Forest on Friday is that we played a similarly hapless Bolton at St Andrews in the autumn when they were on a terrible winless streak and of course Bolton won.
NB In response to Ali Duncan — freedom of speech is one thing, being libellous about the owners is another.
Keep up the good work Dan. KRO. SOTV.
Welcome back Dan, and well done in keeping us
informed even when facing adversity.
Firstly let me say how gutted I am, missed two games all season and
cannot get a ticket for my nearest game this season, I live in Nottingham and
the game is a sell-out both home and away. Still persevering though and
not giving up until kick-off.
Back to the league position, both Blackpool and Forest are in free fall
though Forest are safe from relegation the atmosphere around the ground is one
of despair. I went to the ground yesterday and they had an open
training session talking to some they are not very optimistic of getting
anything Saturday and cannot realistically see where their next points are
coming from.
Back to Blues, we were unlucky not to get something
from Middlesbrough, have to agree with LC, we need to rain shots when in a
possible shooting position. I still feel we can finish 14th or 15th but will be
happy at 21st, we have a run of 3 home games and I cannot see us not getting at
least 3 points, hopefully we can banish the current home form with at least one
win, Leeds and two draws.
We have the easiest run-in compared to the teams below us and looking at
the Easter fixtures I cannot see the bottoms clubs getting too many
points to climb out of their current positions, but this has been a funny
season for results.
KRO+DNM
Apparent we hold the league record for the most number of away wins since the last home win
The owners need to realise, that you get out what you put in. As they’ve put next to nothing in over the last few seasons, are they really surprised that we’ve struggled so much? If they can’t invest in the club, do the decent thing, sell and let someone else do the job properly.
Pretty simple. Proud of my club, proud to put money into my club, proud that I’ve had a season ticket for 49 consecutive years, proud that my sons have has theirs for 10 consecutive years. Gerrit?
whether or not we stay up without investment the league position will be worse next season guaranteed. with no money coming in you think its bad now it will only get worse. Not had my usual season ticket this year because i though it’d be a complete waste of time and by god i was right, so im glad i didn’t. I’ve been to a couple of odd games this season and the difference even from last is huge, don’t get me wrong I think the team still fights as hard as ever but its usually in vain as we have very little quality in telling areas on the pitch. I cannot warrant paying such a huge amount to watch a team that has been stripped down to nothing. Its not as though im asking for millions to be spent, no, but we have seen it go backwards in terms of developing. ive watch blues for 12 years and its always stayed at a level, no money spent but certainly not taken out to be never seen again!! Surely all of you can see this.
Hi Daniel welcome back mate firstly, timing just right forest game is another important game for us.
just testing to see if I can log in. KRO