Often Partisan

OP in Hong Kong – Day 5 pt 1 – The Future

Will the club be taken over during the summer? Will there be money for players to be signed?

I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve been asked those questions in the last few days. Without a crystal ball it’s impossible to say anything for definite – and let’s be honest, if I was that clairvoyant I’d be giving Mystic Meg a run for her money.

However, I can tell you what I think – based on what I’ve heard from people in Birmingham, from what I’ve heard from people out here and from my own gut instinct. Like all speculation you should take what I say with a large pinch of salt; gather the information that is out there and come to your own conclusions.

First of all, I think I need to establish what I think will happen. From what people have been saying and from the announcements I have seen there will be some sort of restructuring prior to the shares being relisted. I suspect that restructuring will finish with TTA owning shares, Carson/U-Continent being paid off and the holding company being in the control of TTA and their merry band of men.

How that will happen I don’t honestly know – and I suspect it won’t be something that can be done immediately.

The last time the shares were relisted after a break, the gap between the first announcement of the mechanism (November 12 2013) , the announcement of the EGM itself (January 16 2014) and the resumption of trading (February 5 2014) was a good three months from start to finish.

Admittedly, EY are probably a bit better at sorting out the paperwork than the previous board under CY/PP would have been; however I can imagine three months to sort it all out is probably a fair estimation of how long it would take – which translates to August at the earliest before things could be done. With Pannu still to be sorted out that could drag out a little bit further still meaning my gut is that things will be done by September; I’m not banking on it though.

I’ve heard from sources in the UK and in HK that there will be money available to sign players. Before you get excited, that doesn’t mean we’re going to spend nine million quid on a player like Andre Gray; what it probably means is we’ll be in the market to offer three or four decent Bosmans a decent contract – say 10-15 grand a week.

There are some teams in our division who can and will blow that out of the water but if Blues are quick enough and persuasive enough it could mean we’ll improve somewhat on the squad we have right now.

Whether that will happen or not is another matter. TTA seemed to suggest that they knew improvement of the squad was a priority but I honestly cannot see how it makes commercial sense for them to do so until they have control of the club – and the longer that drags the less of the transfer window there will potentially be available.

In short – I think we should live in hope but not expectation things will be much better next season. I’m going personally with the idea that if TTA do takeover it’s a big step away from what has gone on in the last five years but it’s not the end of the story – that there will probably be another change in ownership within a couple of years after that. Only time will tell.

This trip wouldn’t have happened without the support of Blues fans including: Richard Wildsmith, “Eudyptula”, David Pugh, Art Watson, Roger Hooper, Gordon Fletcher, Gary Loveridge, Michael Hancox, G Miles, Neil Pouney, the Blues Trust, Blues Middle East, PJ Planning, Open Tax Services and many others.

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34 Responses to “OP in Hong Kong – Day 5 pt 1 – The Future”

  • Murph says:

    We’ll dan I think when Tta do get control they may be selling rather quickly to there already in mind buyer !? That’s my opinion . As I think they have been the front for changing the ownership to a British one !? My belief and again your info priceless ! Keep right on mate .

  • Dave Mann says:

    Encouraging news it must be said , let’s hope our hopes for next season are more fruitful than I first thought .. If things can be sorted out by September then maybe we can push again and this time stay the corse but as always ime not convinced untill the ts are crossed and the Is are dotted so like the last five years only time will tell . KRO

  • Stephen says:

    Do you think that there is a possibility that Carsen could refuse to sell his shares at anything other than a ridiculously high price. My fear is that he has a stash hidden away and if found not guilty in court, he could make the sale to TTA very difficult,

  • Art says:

    Another 3 month wait won’t make a big difference considering how long this nightmare has lasted.

    I’m more interested in what the new owners plan to do with the club.

    Are they judt short term profit makers or long term investors looking for the big money generated from promotion.?

    That’s the big question for me Dan.

  • Walker says:

    Maybe if we take an offers on cotteril and Donaldson and maybe build with that we could move forward. Rowett needs to lose the favouritism if we are going to reach the play offs.

    Bradshaw,tesche, emyr huw, Buxton, promote Mende, brown and Adams + buy or loan a winger

  • Richard Granfield says:

    E&Y and the head of TTA have worked together before.
    Therefore my prediction is that TTA will ultimately own BIH and BCFCplc and then sell and make a
    tidy profit….And why not for all the work and money they have put in?

  • rhees says:

    I think tta will invest another 10 million to run the club wages and buy players.
    Start of last session my dreams were a better season for us and vile to go down, dreams achieved.
    Next season to beat villa in play off final how great would that be.
    Dreams can come true and as a blue nose its what we have to survive off
    So take our snippets of mews off Dan dream high and see what happens thanks Dan kro

  • ChrisG says:

    GR said the other day that he knows the positions that need strengthening in the squad, well I really hope he has a list of players he wants to fill those positions and has already put the feelers out on a few of them & if they are to be bosmans then there’s no reason why he hasn’t. I’ve said before about how quick LC moved in the market & GR needs to do the same this time and if by some miracle the takeover is completed before the window closes and transfer money is available then all the better.

  • StevieW says:

    Pretty much agree with you on all that Dan.

    My stance has always been that Blue was not going to be sold off, only as a last down the pan resort, and that reinvestment/takeover of BIHL would be achieved first then the re financing of its only most important asset.

    Now depending on the interest in the football business from a new BIHL owners point of view would map the future for Blues.

    Still as you say a long way to go but perhaps the Blue touch paper has been lit now.

  • steve-o says:

    If TTA are are a front for a near term future sale then we should expect another couple of seasons like this one at least. Mid-table and safe. I would be amazed if we reach the play-offs. Surely TTA are simply going to maintain a steady ship until real ownership arrives.

    There will still be no long term plan until somebody is sat in the seat with the visibility to do it. But at least short term we seem to be taken care of.

    Villa in contrast will have new owners soon who will have a long term plan. Whilst every part of me wants a Villa promotion failure, I don’t think it’s going to happen. It would be realtively easy for new investement and a solid management appointment to achieve success next year. Unless they can balls it up of course.

  • Paul Hung does like football , so I feel another loan will come through as no matter what happens another loan will have to be paid back , and being as it will be on BCFC it will show that they do intend to go for the big time for a couple of years at least , as the difference in sale value of the club between the prem and the championship will be a big temptation , and who knows if they are clever enough to do what they have thus far they may like another leicester type attempt at the top , there is the chance with football starting to take off in China that a couple more top Asian stars could be signed up , and blues becoming big business in Asia as Carson intended …

  • DaveP says:

    Are E&Y being paid Dan? The length of time they’ve spent on Project Bluenose isn’t going to make for pretty reading when they submit their bill? Or are they on a retainer?

  • Lich Blues says:

    Great work as ever Dan. I personally believe that if and when TTA take control of the situation fully that they will have a buyer lined up. They have worked with Ernst and Young before and would want a return on their money as quickly as possible. Surely they have put feelers out, made contact with people who may be interested in taking over Blues. They are not here through the goodness of their heart and they will want to sell quickly – hopefully to the right people.

    As Art said earlier if we have to wait another three months after the five year balls up we’ve endured so be it. If Rowett is given some funds to strengthen for the start of the season great. Is it unrealistic to think we could actually be in a position to sign decent players in January? I hope not.


  • Jaffa says:

    How much longer are you out there Dan.

  • Agent Abonglahor says:

    BCFC could prove to be a very attractive proposition when freed from the mire that CY and his hangers on created. I mean just compare us that team from Birchfield that have just been relegated from the Prem and how much that randy bloke wants for them. I’m assuming that BCFC would have little debt, manageable wages offered at a reasonable price.

  • Robin says:

    If & when TTA take control & eventually sell it would not surprise me at all if Panos & Friends showed an interest in the club

  • ChrisG says:

    Dan since your podcast on day 2 have you had any more luck trying to speak to Paul Suen Cho Hong?

  • ZR says:

    whats happening at Leicester might spur TTA on to equal that . A quicker solution to the clubs financial nightmare !

    • Andrew says:

      im sorry to dampen your dream but Leicester city’s current fortune is one that will not come around again so quickly! Im 30 and I highly doubt bcfc will be in the prem again much before im middle aged, so to top it would be a very long way off if ever. more likely we will not win another cup for at least another decade to, could be more, TTA might not be all that good a thing for blues as we know nothing of their intentions could so easily go south more so than us being a competitive side again.

  • I read a list of his likes Dan….

  • No but if you like the product you take more pride and work harder to make it a success if you can afford to buy , I take your point though ,..

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