New Quota Rules (pt II)

Last Friday, I posted the first part of a blog post about the new squad quota rules being brought in by the Premier League.

I’ve spent the best part of this week collating data on the squads each Premier League club to see where how well they can comply to these rules; and to see if I can see where there potential problems. I’ve pulled all the data from the official web pages of each club, and then checked confirmed transfers with data from the BBC website and the Sky Sports website, in an effort to have it as accurate as possible.

Teams with a surplus of overage players

Fulham (1 over), Man City (4 over), Wolves (4 over)

Fulham have one player over the required 25 overage players, which I have to admit was quite surprising. Having a quick run through their squad, I can’t see any obvious candidates that can be cut, but I guess if they were to lose Konchesky or Zamora to Blues that would bring them back to the correct level.

It was always going to be the case that Manchester City were going to be well over; with sixteen homegrown players amongst those 29 overage players it’s not as imperative for them as you would think to lose foreigners, and I suspect that they will be selling players off pretty soon – I would think outsiders like Jo, Roque Santa Cruz or Felipe Caicedo would be among the first to be sold. This figure doesn’t include Robinho either.

Wolves have been pretty intensive in the transfer market already, and it shows as their squad is quite top heavy; with Sam Vokes having gone to Bristol City today that brings the total temporarily down by one, and I can see someone like Stefan Maierhofer being shown the exit door rapidly. That leaves two players to be moved on; I would think with four overage keepers Ikeme or Murray might be moved on as well, and then it could be down to who is wanted by other clubs.

Teams without enough homegrown players

Arsenal (1 short), Chelsea (3 short), Liverpool (1 short), Wigan (1 short)

I was quite surprised to see Arsenal come up one short on the homegrown front; I’ve always thought that they promoted from within. That being said, they only have seventeen overage players and as such can easily forego one space from the twenty five; I believe their under 21s to probably be good enough to fit in around the overage squad. Note underage players cannot be named in the overage squad.

Chelsea only have five homegrown players, and two of them aren’t at all first team regulars – Ross Turnbull and Michael Mancienne. Again, they only have twenty two overage players, so they could at the moment operate on a reduced squad basis, but with it being mooted Ashley Cole is looking for a move abroad, that would only hamstring them further. I fully expect them to sign at least one homegrown player in the window.

Liverpool have forty three players named in their first team squad; only twenty four are overage and only seven of those overage players are homegrown – with this in place that means their overage squad is full UNLESS they sign another homegrown overage player. They too have a large quantity of youngsters who are homegrown coming through, and I think they’ll be okay as well under the rules.

Wigan are the surprise members of this group; they have a first team squad containing twenty overage players with only seven being homegrown; this would mean that losing a squad place wouldn’t affect them much but they don’t have the luxury of a massive youth team. I suspect without investment they could be in for a very rocky ride this year.

Teams with a large amount of players born in 1989

I picked this out as players born after 1/1/89 are underage this year, but next year will be overage. This means that if they aren’t first team players now, then they need to be of value to the squad or they will be hogging overage squad places next year.

Arsenal (4) Arsenal have four players who were born in 1989 (Vela, Walcott, Gibbs and Traore); all of whom play or are on the fringes of the first team and all are homegrown.

Aston Villa (5) Aston Villa have five players born in 1989 (Albrighton, Delfouneso, Delph, Bannan and Clark). Again, all five are homegrown, and are on the fringes of the first team

Chelsea (4) Chelsea have four players born in 1989 (Sturridge, Di Santo, Hutchinson, and Scott Sinclair). All four will be homegrown – but only Sturridge has been near the first team. It’ll be interesting to see if Chelsea blood Di Santo, Hutchinson and Sinclair to enable them to add to their pitiful total of homegrown players.

Liverpool (3) Liverpool have three players born in 1989 (Insua, Nemeth and Ngog). Of these three, only Nemeth will be considered homegrown when he’s overage. Whilst it’s true Insua has been in the first team, Liverpool have been trying to ship him out only for it to fail due to the Argentine’s wage demands; Ngog is a first teamer but he too has been talked about as a loan signing for some Premier League teams. I think it’s a big year for all three of them.

Manchester United (4) Man U have four players born in 1989 (Smalling, Obertan, Cleverlye and Cathcart). All barring Gabriel Obertan will be considered homegrown next year, but of the four I can only see Smalling really impacting the side; I think Obertan is on his way out and I don’t think Cleverley or Cathcart have pushed into the first team enough – I think both may be ripe for the picking come January.

Tottenham Hotspur (3) Spurs have three players born in 1989 (Bale, Livermore and Dos Santos), and of those three only Dos Santos will not be considered homegrown. I think Gio Dos Santos is on his way out of Spurs anyway; Jake Livermore has only made one league appearance for Spurs as well and I think this could be the year he’s moved on. Bale as we know is a first teamer and is safe.

West Ham United (3) West Ham United have three players born in 1989 (Sears, Tomkins and Stanislas), all three are homegrown and are around the first team. I think it’s proof of West Ham’s academy that they still have players coming through the ranks

In short, I think that the majority of squads won’t be that affected by the rules being brought in but I think more emphasis will have to be put on ensuring players are brought in that are either homegrown or that can become homegrown. Also, doing this has made me realise how weak Newcastle, Wigan and Blackpool really are, and they are my three candidates for the drop.

I’m not publishing the spreadsheet, but will endeavour to answer any questions that people have.