Often Partisan

The Dangers of Predicting a Takeover

Yesterday, James Nursey of the Mirror became the latest in the line of people online to pontificate on what is happening with regards to the takeover of Birmingham City Football Club. His piece in the Mirror was backed up by various tweets opining as to the timing and value of the takeover.

Unfortunately, in the absence of any firm announcements from BIH to the Stock Exchange, rumour is king. Until Mr Pannu in his role as CEO, MD and Executive Director of BIH is able to publish an announcement to the HKSE that something has happened he is bound by confidentiality agreements and as such it is difficult for him to make any comment at this time.

Nursey has made his name amongst sports journalists for his bold predictions, both on twitter and in the Mirror. Whilst he would argue that he’s got a decent hit rate for accuracy it is my personal belief at this moment in time it would be dangerous to rely on any prediction with regards to any takeover of BCFC. The situation seems very fluid at this moment in time and until any formal bid is made an announced I think it would be difficult to give any kind of timescale of how long it will take – I certainly think it’s incredibly optimistic to say it will happen by Christmas.

The problem we have is that there is no time limit; indeed, it would make sense for any prospective buyer to hold out as long as possible to force the purchase price down to distress levels. The longer it goes on the more desperate Carson will become – and unfortunately, the more desperate we as Blues fans will become for something to happen. I’m of the belief that the main criminal case is now tangential at best to the sale process; I very much doubt anything will be sorted prior to the start of the case in just under five weeks. Indeed, I’m starting to feel pessimistic of the sale being sorted prior to the transfer window and any hope Blues had of an infusion of cash to purchase players etc is slowly ebbing as each day passes.

I know that people are unhappy with the lack of information from Hong Kong but it is to be expected. As an example, the last AGM BIH had for their own shareholders was in December 2010 – almost two years ago – which kinda defies the point of an annual general meeting. If BIH can’t keep their own shareholders advised of their investment in the company what hope do us Blues fans have? Whilst the newspapers talk about Carson losing a massive amount of money in this deal it is worth bearing in mind that Carson owns around a quarter of the company – the little guys, the shareholders who own bits and pieces also stand to lose a lot of their investment and it’s them who have to agree to is as well as Carson. Any deal Pannu thrashes out has to be approved by shareholders at an EGM and thus he has to give them some sort of return or risk the deal being vetoed.

I think it’s worth bearing in mind that the last takeover of the club took more than two years from when Carson bought the original 29.9% stake to taking control of the club. Whilst I anticipate (and let’s be real about this, hope like hell) that it won’t take as long as last time I think that we need to bear in mind as fans that this isn’t going to end quickly or smoothly. There’s going to be a lot more rumour and a lot more misinformation bandied about before we get the real truth of what is going on. I hate to keep saying this, but we have sit tight, grin and bear it.

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16 Responses to “The Dangers of Predicting a Takeover”

  • RUPERT says:

    We think we are at a low point now? This is a good period compared to whats about to hit us ! We wont be sold to anyone decent because any decent transparent buisness people wont want to deal with the people who own the club.
    We have never known who really pulls the strings at BIH there are several shareholders who are run by various other shareholders who claim to own a share in the club or BIH I hate the day these people came here. The sale of more players in Jan and almost certain relegation will follow before we can look forward to someone buying our stricken club for a pound (as sully did).
    The only upside is that I hope and indeed pray that our so called owner loses everything and is ruined for life…………….. that would be justice!

    • The Saint says:

      I love an optimist. You sure you don’t want Carson strapped to a wagon wheel and flogged till his back is red raw, pouring with blood and his bare bones protruding aswell? (just to get a sense of real justice (sic)) “let him who is free of sin cast the first stone” err! I think thats the quote (aint we all done a dodgy deal or two in our lifetime) just Carson had more money to play with.

    • Blue in Spain says:

      What a load of twaddle. With an attitude like yours, I hope you lose your house, just like Carson has!

      • chris says:

        some very bitter people on here.
        hardly heard anyone moaning when he was spending his money or re-mortgaging his home to finance blues.
        remember when nearly everyone said just spend 7 to 9 mill on chucho and why haggle over the 14 mill for Pavlechencko, “just pay it”.

        • RUPERT says:

          I moaned actually! Because if someone has to go as far as mortgaging a home to fund a football club there is a real problem within that persons finances. There was no money for Chucho or Pavlechenko they were NEVER going to come to our club. Dream on all of you who somehw think These owners have done anything for our club, they are killing it. Dont mention the carling cup that was mainly sullivans squad and management team!!

      • RUPERT says:

        I will NEVER lose any of my houses actually. mr blue in spain and I dont live a walter mitty lifestyle like someone who bought our club.

        We are where we are through terrible management, whos fault is that ?

        • James Black says:

          Rupert, I think Carson meant well. he has not gained anything from his venture in fact he has lost millions. Tell what it is again that he did that destroyed the club. Things went wrong, he never came with the intention of harming us. I personally wish him all the best and just sorry it never worked out for him and us. I don’t see the reasoning in spitting blood. Like all the stupid posts people made about milking the club huh. Talk of asset stripping. none of which has happened. Give the man a break huh. Also people give lee Clarke a break. Just wait and stop grinding us down.

  • ChrisG says:

    I thought the reason the takeover took so long last time was because we were relegated and CY & co were only interested in buying a premiership club. Maybe if they hadn’t stalled they would of got the club for, was it 35 million origionally? instead they paid double that & obviously added to the problems they now face. KRO.

  • Mickey07 says:

    Bored with it all to be honest….we are stuck with a shite board and a shite manager…apathy big time.

    • nicky wicky says:

      Mickey07 I don’t think you are being fair to LC. we are only a few points from the promotion places. I think he has a good idea of what he wants,but i think that some of his coachs are not doing their jobs properly ie we are shipping goals nearly every game. It’s hard to win matches and get points when you have to get at least a goal a game.most of the goals that have been conceded have been schoolboy errors not picking up the second ball where the goalie and centre backs leave the ballfor each other to clear, and then noone clears it and the oppossision nips in and scores.Blues are in a false position they are scoring goals so should be up the top,but the defending has cost them mainly set pieces and throw ins,and conceding possession late!

  • Letsby Avenue says:

    Take overs ?

    Ashley selling up at one point, then decided to stay.
    After allegedly being in talks with some Americans.

    Mr Bates at Leeds has been in negotiations cum discussion since May 2012.
    With a Middle East company that has no money and was banned from taking over a Turkish Bank – by the Turkish government- because they had no liquidity, no assets and were not trusted.

    But Mr Bates continues discussions withg them – :-)

    Take-overs don’t happen overnight, and I think Pannu has gone as far as anyone can go in trying to keep people informed.

    Any interested party will make on offer, and within that offer will be the status and potential of the target.

    Let’s be serious, no organisation, in competition, is going to sit and wait for Carson’s trial to be decided. They will make an offer and it may have riders, but it will be based on potential, current status and markets.

    It doesn’t matter a jot whether Carson is set free (I hope) or banged up, it is a business decision.
    Blues won’t be any cheaper if Carson isn’t around. No one is buying Carson.

    They are buying a business. With or without potential to develop, with or without a good return on investment…i.e. promotion to the money-trough.
    Carson is the largest shareholder in BIHL and subsequently BCFC via his son, but his position and influence has long since passed in Blues’ future.

    Peter Pannu has been shown to be the only true individual amongst Carson’s original gang of hangers-on.
    Yu, Hui, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dunford and Wiseman have all bit the dust through various reasons from sleaze to corruption to incompetence….Pannu is the Last Man Standing, and it is his ability that will save Blues.IMO
    Whomever buys us, I hope they keep him on for a few months at least.

    Yes, I’m a long time admirer of Pannu…:-)

    • Oldbluenose says:

      Latsby;, My biggest fear is that Carson Yueng, may become so desperate to sell-up, That he may well go simply for the money and will no longer care just who buys us, [ Cannot in honesty blame him though ].

      All possible suitors, are of course shrouded in mystery, [ secrecy ], The Indian connection is [ possibly ] tantalising, — The Tai, connection may be more suitable, ?. — The Chinese connection, terrifies me, [ More secrecy, surrounded in more mystery ]. Finally, Paladini, Whose first statement was the wish to bring in Ron Atkinson, !!. [ I have nothing against ” Big Ron ” personally,] but do not think he will any longer have anything credible to offer our club, !!.

  • tamuffblue says:

    Hear Hear Rupert bang on matey !!!! as for Blueinspain too much sangria and sun you aint got a clue !!!!!

  • ForevertheOptimist says:

    we’ll be sold as soon as the circus has left town and Carson goes down.
    We will rise again and soon be putting this slow lingering mascherade behind us.
    Have some faith ..it will happen …our Club will come back stronger and healthier.
    Exciting times ahead, just got to KRO Till the end of the Road.
    Good performance today so lets be positive and optimistic.
    Well Done The Lads.

  • tamuffblue says:

    back from Leeds – brilliant performance

    comment edited

  • I Roth says:

    If I had advised Carson in the first place when he was buying the Blues he would have bought them for half of what he eventually paid. Everyone knew he overpaid by at least 50%. Was not Pannu an adviser and a barrister to boot. Not very good advice in the first place. The Golds and Sullivan must have laughed their way to the bank. If Carson had paid the proper sum for the club; that extra money could have been spent on the team.
    Carsons advisers are all to blame. He did not know the club or its worth at that time, all he saw was fans clapping him. The Golds and Sullivan did I believe pay him some money back after stitching him up.
    I think they gave him twelve million back. So he paid around seventy million for the club. Still far too much. We are now left with a shadow of a team, whilst the Premiership boys get richer and fatter.

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